tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10584495.post4779863943323106958..comments2024-03-28T12:34:14.649-07:00Comments on dangerous idea: On the use of probability theory in the philosophy of religionVictor Repperthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10962948073162156902noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10584495.post-77388479380027932292011-05-10T12:18:57.301-07:002011-05-10T12:18:57.301-07:00DePoe got his Masters at Western Michigan Universi...DePoe got his Masters at Western Michigan University.Victor Repperthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10962948073162156902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10584495.post-51371972551943476562011-05-09T21:08:44.395-07:002011-05-09T21:08:44.395-07:00Victor,
I'd imagine you've seen it, but i...Victor,<br /><br />I'd imagine you've seen it, but if not DePoe on Bayes and the Resurrection:<br /><br />“…my goal is to apply EBT to testimonial arguments for the historicity of the Resurrection as an objective tool to disentangle mere personal opinion from evidential support.” DePoe recognizes the difficulty of assigning specific figures and opts instead for ranges he hopes “the atheist and theist alike could be happy with.” Generous indeed, DePoe is willing to disqualify all but 10 of the 520 witnesses recorded in the New Testament. After noting that “even with charitable values for each term the evidence for R is compelling,” DePoe turns to objections from John Earman, one of which is to claim defect in Bayesian analysis of multiple witnessing or Bayesianism itself, two of which essentially consist of assigning non-charitable prior probabilities without sufficient reason. After brief but compelling responses to Humean critique of miraculous testimony, DePoe concludes: “…the EH account presents a plausible way to demonstrate the overwhelming evidential case for the Resurrection–even while using diminished values for the evidence that many non-believers would find acceptable. Therefore, it is rational to believe that the eyewitnesses testify truly…”<br /><br />The full PDF can be downloaded from the "Papers" tab on my blog, if anyone's interested.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10584495.post-29290292412468195142011-05-09T18:50:24.933-07:002011-05-09T18:50:24.933-07:00Prior probability is, indeed, almost as important ...Prior probability is, indeed, almost as important as the historical evidence itself. Evangelicals often concentrate on the latter, and forget the former -- though I think a good case can be made that prior probability is quite high. <br /><br />Or to give this a little twist, what probability would you assign a report that Osama bin Laden rose from the dead? <br /><br />http://christthetao.blogspot.com/2011/05/did-osama-bin-laden-rise-from-dead-how.html<br /><br />I don't know how important the actual numbers are, though -- it's all pretty rough, of course. I'm glad Tim explained his thinking on that -- I'd read his article, but had recently seen a gross misrepresentation of it, linked from John Loftus' site.David B Marshallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04029133398946303654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10584495.post-40942115539675642332011-05-09T06:59:38.550-07:002011-05-09T06:59:38.550-07:00I think it highly likely that the people of that t...I think it highly likely that the people of that time *believed* that Jesus rose from the dead and that their belief fully explains the historical the accounts we have. I can see no reason whatsoever to think such an event actually happened or is even possible.<br /><br />I don't happen to believe that the existence of pain and suffering make theism untenable. I know people who seek to be free of suffering. We call them junkies.<br /><br />Still, what one believes is possible is going to strongly influence how you asses the probability of some event happening so it is important to be sure that one's basic assumptions are based in reality or science, what is in fact the case, rather than one's fantasy or desire about what one believes ought to be the case.brendahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14544680532155804010noreply@blogger.com